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After President Xi Jinping's visit to the UK in 2015, China-UK relations entered a "golden era." The Johnson administration viewed China as a "systemic competitor," while the Truss government directly labeled it a "threat." After Sunak took office, although he once referred to China as the "number one threat," his stance softened during the G20 summit, describing China as a "systemic challenge." The shift in the Sunak government's perception of China and the underlying reasons have significant implications for the development of China-UK relations.

1. The Rishi Sunak government's statements and perceptions of China since taking office

Since taking office, the Sunak government's perception and stance toward China have undergone shifts. Initially, Sunak viewed China as a long-term threat to the UK's economy and security, aligning with the U.S. in emphasizing the need to address challenges posed by China. Subsequently, while maintaining a tough posture, Sunak began seeking dialogue and cooperation with China, particularly on global challenges such as climate change. The UK government positioned China as an "epoch-defining challenge" in policy documents, while stressing the importance of engagement in its foreign policy approach. After the G7 summit, Sunak proposed a strategy of "de-risking" rather than "decoupling" from China. The British Foreign Secretary's visit to China sent a positive signal, underscoring the necessity of cooperation with China. The UK government also adjusted its official rhetoric regarding China and Russia, toning down confrontational language. The Sunak administration has demonstrated a proactive attitude toward resetting UK-China relations, though still grounded in Western values, while attempting to recalibrate its hardline stance and showing willingness for communication and engagement.

2. Factors Driving Changes in the UK's Perception of China

The Sunak government faces the challenge of redefining the UK's international identity in the post-Brexit era, with its fluctuating stance toward China reflecting growing internal and external pressures. Domestic issues include energy shortages, rising prices, and refugee waves triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, all of which pose threats to the UK's stability. The Sunak administration must prioritize addressing livelihood concerns while recognizing the importance of maintaining stable bilateral relations with China. With increasing downward economic pressure and the risk of recession, the government needs to strike a balance between economic interests and security concerns, as Sino-British economic and trade relations are crucial for the UK's economic recovery.

Political constraints from extremist factions within the Conservative Party also influence China policy, with the tug-of-war between hardliners and pragmatists leading to contradictory policies. External factors include the wave of Western leaders visiting China, intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition, and the need to rebalance UK-EU relations. The UK cannot ignore the trend of other Western nations engaging with China, and the U.S.-China rivalry forces it into a dilemma over its China policy. At the same time, Britain must reassess its relationship with the EU to enhance policy coherence, which affects the Sunak government's perception of China. The UK and the EU share common interests regarding China, seeking to benefit from its economic opportunities while avoiding excessive dependence. As the Sunak government adjusts its perception of China, it must consider the necessity of engaging with the EU and ensuring consistency in its China policy.

3. The Future Direction of China-UK Relations

Against the backdrop of shifting international dynamics and domestic policy adjustments, the Sunak government has shown positive signals of re-engagement in its China policy, which holds significant implications for the development of China-UK relations. The promotion of intergovernmental interactions and the revival of bilateral ties, such as Cleverly's visit to China, help rebuild communication channels and prevent further deterioration. The UK government has increased funding to enhance Mandarin skills among public officials, improving their capacity to understand and engage with China.

The Sunak government’s recalibration of its perception of China, if implemented, could strengthen cooperation between the two sides in key areas such as people-to-people exchanges, climate change, and artificial intelligence, expanding the scope for collaboration. Cultural and educational exchanges remain a crucial pillar of China-UK cooperation, with data showing China as the largest source of international students in the UK. Addressing climate change is another vital area for enhanced collaboration, with the Sunak government acknowledging China’s pivotal role in global issues and emphasizing the need for continued cooperation.

The field of artificial intelligence may emerge as a highlight for strengthened cooperation, with China and the UK having co-hosted successive forums on AI innovation and development. The Sunak government seeks to advance its "Global Britain" strategic objectives by deepening cooperation with China, though the UK’s actual status and capabilities constrain its ability to shape global influence.

While the Sunak administration aims to consolidate the UK-US "special relationship," excessive alignment with American diplomacy may perpetuate the inherent "duality" of its China policy, complicating bilateral relations without fundamental change.

conclusion

The Sunak government has shown a positive adjustment in its stance toward China, but due to domestic politics and external factors, policy uncertainties remain. The duality and vacillation in the UK's China policy may persist. In his foreign policy speech, Sunak emphasized realism infused with value-based considerations, interfering in China's internal affairs. The tendency toward pan-politicization and pan-ideologization in the UK's perception of China reflects arrogance and prejudice in its policy approach. The reshuffle of Sunak's cabinet, appointing Cameron as Foreign Secretary, is seen as a signal of the UK seeking closer engagement with China. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that the stable and healthy development of China-UK relations is of great significance to both countries and the world, expressing hope that the UK will adopt a correct perception of China and steer the overall direction of bilateral relations. On the premise of safeguarding its core interests, China can actively explore channels to restart exchanges and cooperation with the UK, seeking breakthroughs to improve relations.