1. Existing Research and Key Issues

The development of Sino-Russian relations after the Cold War is discussed, emphasizing cooperation between the two countries in political, economic, security, and diplomatic fields, as well as how Sino-Russian relations have become a model for a new type of major-country relations. Academic research focuses on four aspects: the driving mechanisms behind the development of Sino-Russian relations, with the United States identified as a key external factor; the main characteristics of Sino-Russian relations, including political mutual trust and high-level exchanges; the impact of Sino-Russian cooperation on global strategic stability; and the prospects and potential risks of Sino-Russian relations. It is particularly noted that after Trump's return to power, adjustments in U.S. foreign policy have introduced new influences on Sino-Russian relations. The Trump administration perceives Sino-Russian coordination as a threat and has proposed a strategic concept to drive a wedge between the two. Studying the Trump administration's objectives, methods, and strategic feasibility in dividing Sino-Russian relations, as well as Russia's perception and response to shifts in U.S. strategy, is crucial for understanding the future trajectory of China-U.S.-Russia relations.

2. New Dynamics in China-U.S.-Russia Triangular Relations

The discussion centers on the new dynamics in China-U.S.-Russia triangular relations during the "Trump 2.0" era. After Trump's return to the White House, his policy adjustments have propelled the triangular relationship into a new phase of strategic transformation. Russia seeks to leverage the China factor to increase its bargaining power with the U.S., aiming to secure concessions from the Trump administration while hedging against the risk of failed negotiations. The Putin administration hopes to exploit U.S. demands for a ceasefire agreement to gain benefits for Russia, such as lifting sanctions, through Sino-Russian relations. At the same time, Russia remains skeptical of the Trump administration's commitments and is unwilling to sacrifice Sino-Russian ties for uncertain U.S. promises. Deepening Sino-Russian cooperation effectively hedges against the risks of failed U.S.-Russia negotiations. Regarding China-U.S. relations, Sino-Russian strategic coordination helps China safeguard border security, energy security, and establish new frontiers for northern openness, while also deterring and constraining U.S. and allied actions in the Western Pacific. The U.S. has significantly shifted its perception and policy toward China, labeling it a "revisionist power" and a "strategic competitor," thereby intensifying and escalating strategic competition with China. The Trump administration will further consolidate resources from Asia-Pacific allies, deepen multilateral cooperation mechanisms, and focus on competing with China in trade, technology, and other fields. Russia leverages the U.S. factor to strengthen Sino-Russian relations, alleviating sanction pressures and stabilizing its strategic rear while enhancing its counterbalance against the U.S. Deepening practical cooperation with China injects stability into Russia's domestic socio-economic development. Russia will increasingly rely on the comprehensive strategic partnership with China, seeking greater benefits from cooperation to serve its broader strategic considerations of safeguarding national interests and gaining strategic initiative amid the Ukraine crisis. U.S. strategists have recognized that China and Russia are leveraging strategic coordination to gain greater strategic advantages. The Trump administration seeks to divide Sino-Russian relations, compete for strategic initiative, and establish a new strategic balance favorable to the U.S.

3. U.S. Objectives and Constraints in Managing China-Russia Relations in the "Trump 2.0" Era

The discussion focuses on the Trump administration's objectives and constraints in managing China-Russia relations during the "Trump 2.0" era. The Biden administration's "dual containment" strategy failed to effectively curb China and Russia, instead driving deeper strategic coordination between the two. Based on strategic perceptions such as the "China-Russia threat theory," "limited reconciliation theory," and "China as the primary threat," the Trump administration proposed a strategy to divide Sino-Russian relations, aiming to weaken their coordination by adjusting U.S. policy toward Russia and enhancing America's strategic advantage over China. The Trump administration views China as the primary threat and Russia as a secondary one, believing Russia is willing to reach a peace agreement on Ukraine and normalize U.S.-Russia relations. However, the administration faces a misalignment of intent and capability in implementing this strategy, including unrealistic objectives, a lack of U.S.-Russia trust, limited effectiveness in tools to woo Russia, and strong domestic anti-Russia sentiment. Additionally, divergences among the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe over the Ukraine crisis further constrain the Trump administration's strategic execution.

4. Russia's Shifting Perceptions of the U.S. and the Trajectory of Sino-Russian Relations

After Trump's election, Russia saw an opportunity to ease U.S.-Russia relations and drive a wedge between China and Russia but will not abandon its fundamental foreign policy line. The Putin administration exploits the Trump administration's "transactionalist" tendencies to increase the likelihood of U.S.-Russia cooperation while maintaining diplomatic engagement with the U.S. to manage the Ukraine crisis and prevent escalation. Russia also leverages Trump's personal traits to seek strategic advantages while advancing on the battlefield to secure negotiation leverage. Russia views deepening cooperation with China as a crucial strategic pillar for socio-economic development and restoring its great-power status. Even if U.S.-Russia relations improve, the strategic foundation of Sino-Russian ties will remain unshaken. Russian political elites clearly recognize the U.S. strategy to "divide China and Russia" and will continue deepening practical cooperation with China, strengthening strategic coordination on the international stage. Russia has realized the importance of enhancing ties with China, especially after the Ukraine crisis, as its economy faces downward pressure and requires stability amid Western sanctions. Russia will bolster cooperation with China in trade, energy, investment, and other fields while promoting global multipolarity and democratization of international relations. Russia also acknowledges potential risks in Sino-Russian relations, such as widening power and influence gaps that may heighten concerns over dependency on China. Both countries should actively manage the negative effects of asymmetric relations. Recommendations include upholding mutual respect, deepening practical cooperation, enhancing strategic trust, and fostering cultural exchanges to ensure long-term stability in Sino-Russian relations.

5. Conclusion

After Trump's election, he sought to divide the Sino-Russian strategic partnership by easing U.S.-Russia relations, but this will be difficult to achieve in the short term. Russia excels at leveraging hotspot issues for strategic gains, and the Putin administration will continue pragmatically adjusting its foreign policy to safeguard national interests. China must closely monitor U.S.-Russia relations and Russian policy shifts, maintaining strategic composure and confidence in the future of Sino-Russian ties. At the same time, China should remain vigilant against U.S. efforts to drive a wedge between China and Russia, prudently navigating U.S.-China competition, consolidating the comprehensive strategic partnership with Russia, and advancing major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics.