Europe-U.S. relations are undergoing profound reshaping. Europe views the U.S. as an ally and economic partner, but the U.S. strategic pivot to Asia and Trump's "America First" policy have intensified contradictions. Trump's potential re-election in 2024 has sparked concerns in Europe, prompting the EU to hold an emergency summit to discuss countermeasures. A deep analysis of the uncertainties in Europe-U.S. relations from a European perspective and their implications holds significant practical importance for understanding the evolving dynamics between the two.

1. Europe's Perception of Uncertainty in Europe-U.S. Relations

The Trump administration's "America First" policy has heightened Europe's sense of uncertainty in Europe-U.S. relations, particularly in security and defense, trade, and global governance. In security and defense, shifts in U.S. policy toward Ukraine and wavering commitments to NATO have heightened Europe's security concerns, forcing it to consider strategic autonomy. In trade, Trump's protectionist policies have increased Europe's economic burden, raising fears of escalating trade conflicts. On global governance, Trump's skepticism toward climate change and the WHO has weakened U.S.-Europe cooperation, negatively impacting multilateralism. Europe's disappointment with U.S. disengagement from global climate and health governance may lead to dashed hopes for joint leadership in these areas.

2. Factors Influencing Uncertainty in Europe-U.S. Relations from a European Perspective

Key factors contributing to this uncertainty include Europe's "self-vulnerability" anxiety and "America First" anxiety. Europe's "self-vulnerability" stems from its asymmetric economic dependence on the U.S. and internal coordination challenges due to political rightward shifts, exacerbating its fragility amid trade tensions. Against a backdrop of sluggish growth and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe's reliance on U.S. trade and energy has deepened, exposing new security risks. The rise of right-wing populism weakens Europe's political stability and defense coordination, heightening concerns over security dependence. Trump's "America First" doctrine further destabilizes Europe-U.S. relations by prioritizing U.S. interests over international norms. If re-elected, Trump’s policies—such as demanding higher NATO defense spending, threatening Greenland, and imposing tariffs on EU steel and aluminum—will reinforce this divergence. His unilateralist foreign policy, including withdrawals from multilateral agreements, undermines global cooperation and introduces new uncertainties.

3. Impact of Europe-U.S. Uncertainty on Europe's Strategic Autonomy and Europe-China Relations

Concerns over Europe-U.S. uncertainty are driving Europe to reassess strategic autonomy and foreign relations. Trump's potential return has made Europe realize the U.S. is no longer reliable, pushing it to take control of its destiny. Europe is accelerating efforts to enhance autonomy and competitiveness, transitioning from a "normative power" to a "geopolitical player." In defense, the EU is urging NATO members to fill capability gaps and advancing a "more European NATO," with von der Leyen proposing a "European Armed Forces Revival Plan" to boost defense funding. Economically, the EU is diversifying trade partnerships, strengthening sovereignty via initiatives like the "European Compass for Competitiveness," and reducing reliance on specific nations. Europe-U.S. tensions are accelerating Europe's push for autonomy in defense, economy, and technology. Meanwhile, disagreements over Ukraine aid and geopolitical risks are driving the EU toward a more geopolitically assertive stance, evident in new aid packages and sanctions against Russia. Future U.S.-Europe bargaining over China may amplify the EU's "dual-track" approach to China. On one hand, U.S. influence could further "Americanize" aspects of Europe's China policy, particularly in tech (e.g., 6G, quantum) and supply chains (e.g., pharmaceutical decoupling). On the other, Europe may use China relations as leverage against the U.S., signaling cooperation when expedient. However, substantive improvements in Europe-China ties remain uncertain. Amid trade and defense realignments, Europe is recalibrating its China stance, viewing the Chinese market as a buffer against U.S. trade losses. While EU leaders express openness to deeper economic ties, von der Leyen's sharp criticism of China at the 2025 G7 summit reflects persistent contradictions in Europe's "triple positioning" of China. If Europe fails to reconcile its "strategic autonomy" aspirations with its "capability deficit," outreach to China may remain tactical. Growing EU policy unpredictability undermines mutual trust, keeping the path to a stable Europe-China partnership long and fraught. Under U.S. pressure, Europe may see China as a short-term market alternative, but as U.S.-Europe coordination advances, China could become a bargaining chip, further entrenching the EU's "dual-track" approach.

4. Europe-U.S. Relations Enter a Multi-Domain Recalibration Phase

The analysis examines recalibration in security/defense, trade, and digital technology. Europe's lingering dependence and wishful thinking mean it will struggle between autonomy and alignment with the U.S. In defense, Europe seeks greater autonomy but remains hindered by internal divisions and reliance on U.S. security guarantees. Economically, tensions may persist, with Europe's high dependence on U.S. markets and energy leaving it vulnerable in diplomatic negotiations. In digital tech, Europe is bolstering local firms, but competition with the U.S. could intensify, particularly in cloud computing, where European players may erode U.S. market share.

5. Conclusion

The Trump 2.0 era raises EU anxieties, particularly in defense, trade, and climate cooperation. Europe's uncertainty about U.S. relations may drive strategic and geopolitical recalibration. Torn between autonomy and dependence, Europe's China policy could grow more inconsistent. Trump's "America First" agenda and populism widen U.S.-Europe divergences, but shared liberal international order ties raise the cost of decoupling. Europe may conditionally align with the U.S. on security, hedge in trade, and pursue institutional innovation in tech competition. China could leverage Europe's anxieties and the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties to steer EU policy toward pragmatism, adding stability to global dynamics.