Sino Foreign Relations | 更新时间:2025-11-27
An Analysis of Critical Minerals Policy During Trump's Second Term and Its Implications for China's Overseas Interests
罗英杰 ,  桂煜彭    作者信息&出版信息
International Forum   ·   2025年11月27日   ·   2025年 27卷 第6期   ·   DOI:10.13549/j.cnki.cn11-3959/d.2025.06.005
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The discussion highlights the importance of critical minerals for the development of strategic emerging industries, as well as the impact of adjustments to U.S. critical mineral policies during Trump's second term on global supply chains and China's overseas interests. Trump declared a "national energy emergency," taking measures to secure U.S. dominance in the global energy sector. Although China leads in mineral processing capabilities, its high dependence on raw mineral imports makes the security of critical mineral supply chains crucial. Trump's critical mineral strategy not only reshaped global supply chains but also intensified the wave of resource nationalism, posing challenges to China's overseas interests. Academic research on policy adjustments and strategic layouts during Trump's new term remains limited. This paper aims to fill this gap by analyzing the motivations behind U.S. policy adjustments, their impact on China's overseas interests, and potential countermeasures.

1. Key Motivations Behind U.S. Critical Mineral Policy Adjustments in Trump's Second Term

The Trump administration's adjustments to U.S. critical mineral policies were primarily driven by efforts to enhance supply chain localization to revitalize American manufacturing, ensure the stability of critical raw material supplies to sustain defense industrial capacity and technological upgrades, and reduce reliance on China's critical mineral supply chains to strengthen supply chain resilience in strategic competition with China. As U.S. manufacturing demand for critical minerals grew, the government promoted localization policies to reduce external dependence and establish secure and controllable supply chains. The contraction of the U.S. mining and metallurgy sector and rising dependence on foreign critical raw materials highlighted supply chain security concerns. The Trump administration closely linked critical mineral strategy with the revival of American manufacturing, expanding energy production to eliminate external dependence and build a reliable, diversified, and affordable energy and critical mineral supply system. The importance of critical minerals in disruptive technological innovations has grown, with uneven global distribution and significant disparities in processing capabilities among nations. The development and utilization of critical minerals are shifting from market-driven logic to security-driven logic. The U.S. defense industry faces challenges such as high external dependence, shortages in critical mineral reserves, and bureaucratic constraints, exacerbating the Trump administration's anxiety over supply chain security. Critical minerals and their derivatives are extensively used across the U.S. defense system, with many elements heavily reliant on foreign sources, posing significant supply chain risks. The U.S. perceives that, against the backdrop of increasingly complex geopolitical dynamics and modern warfare transformations, its defense-critical mineral supply chains face security risks due to the dominance of so-called "adversarial states" like China and Russia. China's position in the global critical mineral supply chain and its development strategies have heightened U.S. insecurity, prompting the American government to strengthen its own supply chain resilience. The Trump administration could not tolerate China's "control" over critical minerals such as rare earths and natural graphite, seeking to diminish China's influence in this sector and establish an exclusive, U.S.-centric critical mineral supply chain as a policy priority.

2. Adjustments to U.S. Critical Mineral Policies in Trump's Second Term

During his second term, the Trump administration systematically adjusted critical mineral policies, guided by an "America First" approach and a pan-security mindset, enhancing supply chain security through policy coordination, risk assessments, and other measures. Policy adjustments included strengthening policy coordination, improving risk assessments, promoting "onshore" production and "friend-shoring" cooperation, and exploiting geopolitical tactics to secure overseas mineral resources. The Trump administration updated its critical minerals list, expanded domestic exploration and extraction, supported private-sector investments, and established new agencies to optimize policy processes and strengthen risk assessments. Simultaneously, the government sought to reshape the U.S. critical mineral landscape by increasing domestic resource development and collaborating with Western allies to weaken China's supply chain advantages and reduce reliance on Chinese critical minerals. Additionally, the Trump administration exploited geopolitical tactics, such as territorial annexation threats and leveraging geopolitical instability, to secure overseas critical mineral resources. These policy adjustments aimed to establish a U.S.-centric critical mineral supply chain, posing challenges to China's overseas interests.

3. Impact of Trump's Second-Term Critical Mineral Policies on China's Overseas Interests

Trump's second-term critical mineral policies negatively affected China's overseas interests in three main ways: First, they increased the costs of China's foreign critical mineral cooperation, as the U.S. used hegemonic tactics to plunder resources, disrupting global markets and industrial systems and raising cooperation costs with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partner countries. Second, the policies intensified resource nationalism, destabilizing China's overseas mining investments, as seen in cases like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Niger, where rising resource nationalism posed risks to Chinese investments. Third, the policies constrained the overseas expansion of China's critical mineral industry. Through trade wars and policy restrictions, the U.S. weakened the export capabilities and market share of Chinese mineral enterprises, increasing market risks and uncertainties. These measures disrupted global supply-demand dynamics, heightened resource security risks, and undermined China's established overseas investment strategies, adversely affecting its overseas interests.

4. Conclusion

The paper emphasizes the central role of critical minerals in great-power competition, Trump's second-term efforts to build a U.S.-centric critical mineral supply chain and industrial system, and the resulting impact on China's overseas interests. Trump's policies fueled resource nationalism, disrupted global market competition, and challenged China's supply chains and overseas industrial development. At the same time, the paper notes the limitations of Trump's policies, such as bureaucratic inefficiencies, partisan conflicts, and state-level restrictions, as well as continued U.S. dependence on Chinese critical minerals. China should enhance its overseas security risk prevention system, secure domestic supplies, diversify overseas mineral sources, and build a multi-tiered supply system. Strengthening national security awareness, safeguarding overseas interests, deepening cooperation with BRI countries, establishing stable supply bases, and fostering a positive international image are essential. Additionally, China should promote global mineral resource governance frameworks, advance energy transition and mineral substitution technologies, and safeguard national security and developmental interests.

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