The evolution of the global geopolitical landscape is discussed, particularly focusing on the new driving paradigm of technology dominance and multi-domain integration. The Central Asian region has emerged as a strategic pivot for major powers due to its advantages in transportation, energy, and security. China has deepened its cooperation with Central Asian countries across multiple fields, while the United States also views Central Asia as a critical component of its global strategic layout. Central Asia has become a key arena for U.S.-China geopolitical-technological competition, yet existing research has overlooked the differentiated perceptions and strategic narratives within the region. This paper aims to construct a dataset of core viewpoints from official think tanks in the five Central Asian countries regarding U.S.-China geopolitical-technological competition, revealing narrative similarities and differences, strategic motivations, and predicting action trends to provide references for China's regional cooperation.

1. Theoretical Evolution of Geopolitical-Technological Competition and the Problem Framework of This Study

The theoretical evolution of geopolitical-technological competition and its significance in great-power rivalry are explored, analyzing 19th-century Anglo-American competition and 21st-century U.S.-Western efforts to curb China's technological advancements. The article notes that with the acceleration of technological revolution and industrial transformation, the impact of geopolitical-technological competition has expanded to economic, political, security, and global governance domains. In East Asia and the Gulf region, countries employ diverse strategies to consolidate or enhance their geopolitical competitive advantages. Central Asia, as a key destination for China's technology exports, has seen Chinese enterprises drive technological progress and industrial upgrading through local energy, transportation, and communication projects. U.S. actions in Central Asia focus on energy development, military deployment, and value export, reshaping resource flows and constructing cross-regional economic networks through multi-dimensional strategies. The article also discusses Russian and Western academic research on U.S.-China geopolitical strategic interests in Central Asia, as well as domestic studies on U.S. strategies and the interests of Central Asian countries. Finally, the article proposes compiling viewpoints from top-tier think tanks in Central Asian countries to reveal their stances and decision-making preferences regarding U.S.-China geopolitical-technological competition, analyzing how technological competition is deeply embedded in and reshaping traditional geopolitical and economic relations.

2. Methodological Framework for Analyzing Central Asian Think Tank Narratives

A methodological framework is constructed to analyze the narratives of Central Asian think tanks in the context of U.S.-China geopolitical-technological competition. The research subjects are top-tier official think tanks from the five Central Asian countries, with core narrative categories extracted from publicly available commentary articles on their official websites. The study focuses on the positions of Central Asian think tanks regarding U.S.-China geopolitical-technological competition from February 24, 2022, to March 24, 2025. By analyzing 106 relevant commentaries, similarities and differences in viewpoints and strategic motivations are revealed. Validity analysis of the dataset shows that most think tanks provide complete data, covering leadership and core research teams, ensuring the dataset's representativeness and accuracy.

3. Narrative Landscape of Central Asian Think Tanks and Their Strategic Motivations

An in-depth analysis is conducted on the narrative landscape and strategic motivations of think tanks from the five Central Asian countries regarding U.S.-China geopolitical-technological competition. Through systematic collection and analysis of core viewpoints, the study reveals the ideological status and trends of Central Asian countries in the context of U.S.-China competition and cooperation. The findings indicate that think tanks across the five countries universally prioritize "infrastructure" and "supply chain" development as key drivers of national and regional growth. They also demonstrate a willingness to actively engage in international cooperation and address global challenges, particularly showing commonality on "global governance" issues. In contrast, attention to "great-power competition" is generally lower, with varying focal points among countries. Additionally, think tanks tend to downplay "comprehensive security" issues, though their interpretations differ. Uzbek think tanks exhibit the most diverse range of concerns, covering all keywords and explicitly mentioning "sensitive issues." These narrative differences reflect the strategic positioning and decision-making choices of Central Asian countries in U.S.-China geopolitical-technological competition, as well as their underlying motivations.

4. Projecting Central Asian Countries' Strategic Paths and China's Response

The strategic trajectories of the five Central Asian countries amid U.S.-China geopolitical-technological competition are analyzed, along with China's potential responses. Kazakhstan pursues diversified and balanced collaboration, aiming to become an active shaper of regional and even global governance, leveraging its geographical and resource advantages to buffer external pressures. Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan focus on pragmatic development through multilateral cooperation to overcome developmental bottlenecks. China's response includes co-developing agendas with Kazakhstan to enhance its international influence, while for the other four countries, it emphasizes building trust by efficiently delivering on cooperation commitments, advancing flagship projects, and boosting autonomous development capabilities.

5. Conclusion

The narratives of official think tanks from the five Central Asian countries regarding U.S.-China geopolitical-technological competition are analyzed, revealing their autonomous awareness and multi-dimensional differences based on national conditions and strategic demands. The paper emphasizes that China, in advancing the Belt and Road Initiative, should shift from a macro action framework to systematic, differentiated country-specific cooperation strategies, precisely aligning with partner countries' core needs. Key cooperation priorities include jointly participating in rule and standard-setting, precisely addressing critical sector demands, and elevating collaboration to institutional co-construction. Such differentiated cooperation can deepen strategic mutual trust, jointly address external uncertainties, promote the building of a China-Central Asia community with a shared future, enhance the endogenous resilience of Central Asian countries, and provide insights for regional cooperation and country-specific research.