This article explores the role of the European Union in global energy competition and the evolutionary logic of its green energy policies. It analyzes the importance of energy competition to national security and geopolitics, as well as the global consensus on energy transition amidst the climate crisis. Three research perspectives on the EU's role are introduced: governance norms theory, market-oriented theory, and power competition theory, pointing out that existing research lacks systematic discussion on the extent of influence of the driving factors behind the EU's green energy policies. It emphasizes that while the EU has advantages in climate governance and energy policy, it has weaknesses in industrial implementation, cost competitiveness, and strategic autonomy. Simultaneously, attention is drawn to the internal rightward shift within the EU and the external shocks posed by Trump's potential return to power, which make it difficult for its green energy policies to translate into competitiveness, resulting in a state of being "green but not strong."

1. Motivations Behind the EU's Green Energy Policy Choices

This section delves into the motivations behind the EU's green energy policy choices. It elaborates on the transformation of the EU's energy strategy from a historical evolution perspective—from strategic dependence during the Cold War to diversified supply and climate governance in the 21st century, and then to the systemic crisis following the Russia-Ukraine conflict—revealing its long-standing energy "trilemma." In terms of energy foundations, due to a shortage of fossil fuels, the EU faces energy security risks, while its development of new energy is constrained by factors such as critical mineral supply and environmental permits. Therefore, it addresses these challenges through policies like the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED). Regarding diplomatic and security objectives, the EU leverages its green energy policies to enhance its international influence, using its leadership in climate governance to promote the spillover of rules and strengthen energy security. In shaping market-institutional advantages, the EU utilizes unified policy frameworks and legislative systems, such as the European Climate Law, to translate emission reduction targets into legal constraints. It influences enterprises in other countries through market and institutional norms, forming a competitive edge, and enhances its competitive position in clean technologies and supply chain resilience through initiatives like the Clean Industrial Deal.

2. Measures and Characteristics of the EU's Green Energy Policy Advancement

To address insufficient energy self-sufficiency and resource scarcity, the EU positions green energy policy as a core strategy to enhance energy security and competitiveness. Its policy measures include: first, top-level design and legally binding targets, such as the European Green Deal and the European Climate Law; second, climate mitigation-related energy policies, such as the "Fit for 55" package, revising the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), RED, and the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED); third, energy industry competitiveness and supply chain policies, such as the Green Deal Industrial Plan, the Net-Zero Industry Act, and the Critical Raw Materials Act; fourth, energy security policies, such as the REPowerEU plan; fifth, green finance and investment guidance policies, such as the EU Taxonomy and the Social Climate Fund. The characteristics of the EU's green energy policy are described as "green but not strong," emphasizing security and autonomy, and focusing on diversifying policy tools. Through various means, it aims to reduce supply risks, cultivate domestic manufacturing, transform green norms into market power, and enhance industrial competitiveness and energy security.

3. Constraints on the Implementation of EU Green Energy Policies

This section provides an in-depth analysis of the various constraints facing the implementation of EU green energy policies. First, disagreements among member states regarding geographical conditions, development levels, and policy implementation have weakened the synergy and efficiency of the EU's energy transition. Specifically, member states' dependence on energy sources has diverged due to geopolitical and other factors, with significant differences in energy supply structures and source distribution between early member states and newer ones. This has increasingly become a coordination obstacle, especially in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, there are variations in the specific pathways of energy transition among member states, such as differing stances on nuclear energy use, which have affected the formulation process of EU decarbonization policies. Regarding policy implementation and enforcement, the formulation of EU energy industrial policies often faces conflicts among member states over priority industries and disputes over cost-sharing, with limited enforcement capacity. For example, France's reduction in electric vehicle purchase subsidies led to a decline in heat pump sales, impacting the energy transition process. Simultaneously, the uneven progress in policy implementation across countries, along with economic strength disparities leading to varying levels of support for Green Deal funding, has weakened the level playing field in Europe and affected the EU's single market. Diverging standards among member states have also undermined the collective force of policy implementation, with differences in environmental standards limiting market compatibility. Inconsistent standards for green taxation and subsidy policies have increased operational costs for multinational enterprises. In recent years, the rise of right-wing parties in several European countries has impacted the EU's green energy policy framework. Right-wing parties have diluted the advancement of the green development agenda, indirectly diminishing the importance of climate transition by politicizing issues like immigration and security, thereby eroding the social foundation of EU green energy policies. Finally, external factors, such as the potential shock from Trump's return to power, also influence EU green energy policies. The U.S. shift back to a resource security-oriented energy policy creates significant ideological differences with the EU on climate governance and energy development issues, affecting the original energy cooperation between the U.S. and the EU.

4. Conclusion

This section points out that the EU plays a significant role in major power energy competition by leveraging the advantages of its single market and normative institutions, but it faces the problem of being "green but not strong." Its energy transition relies on transitional energy sources and external critical mineral supply chains, while internal governance mechanisms and member state disagreements risk weakening its policies. External shocks, such as Trump's unilateralist policies affecting transatlantic cooperation, also prompt the EU to advance energy independence and strengthen energy cooperation with China. In the short term, the EU will persist with its green energy policies but needs to resolve internal contradictions to maintain its advantages. Amid escalating major power energy competition, the EU may adopt protectionist trade policies toward China. However, there is broad potential for cooperation between China and the EU in areas like climate governance and the new energy industry. China should lead high-quality development with new quality productive forces, promote the improvement of international multilateral rules for energy industry competition, guard against unilateral trade measures, and contribute to global energy transition and sustainable development goals.